Risk area has a 15% hatched tornado area and specifically mentions strong/long-tracked tornadoes.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z .
POTENT S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TO ACROSS OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD AS 100KT 500MB WIND MAX RED RIVER VALLEY SRN OK MOVES TO MO BOOTHEEL BY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW SWRN MO ATTM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AS 50-60KT LLJ IS RAPIDLY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO TN VALLEYS.
SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES SWWD THRU SRN AR INTO ERN TX.
IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS THE PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A TORNADO THREAT WAS HOW MUCH HEATING AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEFICIENT IN SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BREAKS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL AL AND MID 60S MIDDLE TN. THUS MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON NWD TO CENTRAL AL ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH.
WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG ASCENT WRN TN INTO MS...MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MID TN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH APPROACH OF 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG /LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INTO SRN MS AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THEY TRACK NEWD. A MORE LINER MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER ARK...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS AL INTO NWRN GA.
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