MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MS/NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131709Z - 131815Z
FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL. LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW...LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE KS/MO
BORDERS...HAS AIDED IN AMPLE SURFACE HEATING...WITH GENERALLY 60S
NOTED ACROSS A BROAD AREA...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN
WRN/MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY. THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN MOST MODEL
FORECASTS...GIVING A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH A CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED...THERE IS STILL A WEAK AMOUNT OF CIN TO BE OVERCOME. AS
MOISTENING OCCURS IN DEEP SLY/SSWLY FLOW AND HEATING
CONTINUES...EXPECT THE CAP TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...NOTED IN NERN AR...WILL AID
IN ASCENT...WITH FORCED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY INITIATING ALONG A
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WRN KY/TN. MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
..HURLBUT.. 04/13/2009
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