6:45
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052319Z - 060045Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND GUST THREAT. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO
NERN MS. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE TAIL END OF SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF LOW TO MID 70S F
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. PORTIONS OF NRN AL AND
SRN TN WERE ONLY IN THE MID 60S F...BUT SOME SLIGHT WARMING MAY
OCCUR AS THE LINE APPROACHES.
WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG...AND PERHAPS TOO STRONG FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..JEWELL.. 04/05/2009
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