Mike Wilhelm's Alabama Weather Blog

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Bamawx.com

This is the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow. This is the "Day 2" Convective Outlook valid for Thursday May, 8, 2008. I am a big "fan" of those folks as I believe they do a really good job with these outlooks. Tomorrow is certainly a day everyone in Alabama and much of the South will need to stay close to a source of weather information.

   SPC AC 071728

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
 1228 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
 STATES THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

 ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS...

 ...SYNOPSIS...

 LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS
 ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...REACHING THE CAROLINAS AND MID
 ATLANTIC THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
 SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND
 INTO VA OVERNIGHT. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD...BUT
 TRAILING PARTS OF FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX
 IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS
 WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO
 THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A
 COLD FRONT.

 ...SERN STATES...

 STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN
 VALLEY REGIONS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING
 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENDANT STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT AN
 AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
 SECTOR DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AREAS MULTI-LAYER
 CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
 LIMIT INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
 THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY
 LAYER WARMING MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO SUPPORT
 MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN
 PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE STRONG
 MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
 CONTRIBUTE TO 45+ KT BULK SHEAR. VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN WARM
 SECTOR SOUTH OF THE EWD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW MAY LIMIT SIZE OF THE
 LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SOMEWHAT. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
 AND LINES WITH BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR
 DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

 ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

 THE 12Z WEDNESDAY RAOB DATA SHOWED ONLY A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH
 LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS COASTAL FL AND SC. AS A
 RESULT DEWPOINTS HAVE RECENTLY MIXED DOWN IN THE 50S IN THESE AREAS.
 HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO
 MODIFY...AND PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT LOW
 60S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF VA BY THURSDAY
 AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
 FROM 800-1200 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
 MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
 ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE KINEMATIC
 ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
 FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
 TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
 DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE
 OF ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40
 KT AND INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT
 SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL LEWP
 STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND.


 ...WRN KS AREA...

 SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL ADVECT
 LOWER-MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS BENEATH STEEP MID
 LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN
 VICINITY OF THE LEE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
 TROUGH APPROACHES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED
 SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
 CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
 THE MAIN THREATS.

 ..DIAL.. 05/07/2008

 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z

   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME      

I am also including a look at the significant tornado composite index maps for 4 and 7 p.m. tomorrow: