Here's the latest spaghetti plot. Models have been consistently creating Jerry in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and bring him ashore on the SE Louisiana coast. Brian Peters and J.B. Elliot have provided some good analyses and information this morning.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HASFORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER…THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Above two graphics are from accuweather.com
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