Mike Wilhelm's Alabama Weather Blog

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Bamawx.com

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  96.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  30SE  30SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  96.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  96.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N  97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.
AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE
THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO
RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.   

ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0300Z 20.5N  96.5W    70 KT
12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.6N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN