Thursday, September 13, 2007

Hurricane Humberto



I thought about titling this post "Zero to 85 in 24 hours". Humberto formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and in about one day became a Cat 1 hurricane. This was the first hurricane to make landfall in the USA in two years.

Power was out in some areas and, according to an AP story, "Jefferson County's Emergency Operations Center in Beaumont, where wind speeds of 75 to 80 mph were noted, said Michael White, the county's assistant emergency management coordinator. Officials were forced to track the storm with laptops, he said."

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Update: There has been at least one fatality in Texas as a carport collapsed in the wind.

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Intensification Record? Check this out from the NHC:
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES…HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KTDEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THISMORNING…AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THISDEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE…NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICALRECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEARLANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW…SOMEDAY…WHY THIS HAPPENED.

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BULLETIN

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL092007 400 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007
…HURRICANE HUMBERTO JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXASTO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 400 AM CDT…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…95 KM…NORTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS…AND ABOUT 25 MILES… 35KM…NORTHEAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.ON THIS TRACK WILL BRING HUMBERTO FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXASAND LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH…140KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS…CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT24 HOURS AS HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30KM…NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDSEXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM. AN OBSERVING STATION AT BEAUMONT TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH…96 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 986MB…29.12 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF HUMBERTO FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…ACROSS FARSOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELSMOST LIKELY OCCURRED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADELANDFALL AND SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ANDSOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION…29.9 N…94.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000AM CDT.

$$FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

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