Today's tornado probabilities map from the SPC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK---
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO
THE GULF CSTL STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW WILL DIG INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRI
MORNING THEN TURN E INTO OK/TX FRI NIGHT AS A 100+ KT H5 JET WRAPS
CYCLONICALLY INTO AR/LA. A LEAD SUBTROPICAL WAVE THAT HELPED IGNITE
THE LARGE MCS TRAVERSING THE CNTRL/ERN GULF FRI MORNING WILL EJECT
NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES DURING THE AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL EJECT QUICKLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLNS CYCLONE...REACHING THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL STATES FRI NIGHT.
...ERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO THE DEEP S...
LARGE MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRI FROM WRN GA/AL SWD TO THE GULF
COAST. NRN PORTIONS OF THE TSTM COMPLEX WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ENE
THROUGH GA AND SC DURING THE AFTN AS THE MID-LVL REFLECTION EJECTS
NE. SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DECREASE WITH NE EXTENT AS STRONGER
THETA-E AXIS REMAINS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. SRN END OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO OFFER A DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE MASS CONVERGENCE/WIND FIELDS RELAX.
IN WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS...FCST BECOMES COMPLEX WITH SVRL
CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE
MCS WELL AND HAS BEEN HEAVILY RELIED ON FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1. THE
LEAD MCS WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST...WITH A DIVERGENT/WEAK LLVL WIND PATTERN NOTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE DEEP S. THIS WILL DELAY QUALITY BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL EARLY AFTN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
SLGT RISK...AND UNTIL EVENING/OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE MS RVR.
SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER NCNTRL TX FRI MORNING...
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING EWD ALONG AN EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE EVE AND INTO NRN MS OVERNIGHT. LLVL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE MID-AFTN ACROSS E TX...WITH THE
LLJ TRANSLATING/EXPANDING EWD INTO AL BY 12Z SATURDAY. 60S SFC DEW
POINTS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NWWD TO THE SFC LOW AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE BY EARLY FRI AFTN ACROSS E TX/SE OK...WITH A
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE LIKELY FARTHER E ACROSS THE GULF STATES
OVERNIGHT.
INITIAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT OVER SERN OK AND ERN TX FRI AFTN AS THE LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT REACH THE DRYLINE/SFC LOW. MLCAPES ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL APPROACH 2500 J/KG AMIDST 55-60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
RESULTING IN INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND NWD
THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AR AS ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL...STORMS ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC SHOULD DEVELOP EWD AND SWD
ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK INTO EXTREME SRN
AR...LA...MUCH OF MS AND AL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. BACKING DEEP
LAYER FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MCS BY 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS MS/AL.
BUT...RISKS FOR PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR TSTM CLUSTERS
WILL EXIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DEEP
S...ESPECIALLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE
ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY OF THE LEAD STORMS
INTERACTING WITH THE WRMFNT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...NAMELY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF LA/MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL
WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF THE MORE QUALITY GULF AIR MASS SHOULD RESIDE.
OTHERWISE...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE DOWNGRADE OF THE
CATEGORICAL RISK TO SLGT AS THE INITIAL DAY 1 FCST WILL CONTAIN
MODEST SVR PROBABILITIES/STRONG SLGT RISK. SUBSEQUENT OTLKS ON
FRIDAY MAY VERY WELL NEED TO INCREASE THE SVR PROBABILITIES/UPGRADE
TO MDT RISK ONCE THE EFFECTS OF MORNING GULF COAST MCS CAN BE BETTER
ASSESSED.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 03/27/2009
The NWS Birmingham has ramped up their confidence lever to "4" on a scale of one to five. Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Birmingham and Jackson NWS:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CARRY OVER
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS CONVECTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THROUGH NOON. A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXIST IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF TROY...UNION SPRINGS...EUFAULA...AND PHENIX CITY. THIS
THREAT WILL END BY AROUND 9 AM AS THE STRONGER ACTIVITY PUSHES
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL START
GENERALLY AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND LAST THE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
NIGHT. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX. DO NOT CONCENTRATE
ON THE TIMING...HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS READY TO GO...AND TAKE
ACTION IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS.
HAVE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT OR MONITOR TELEVISION AND RADIO
REPORTS IN CASE SEVERE OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME QUITE DANGEROUS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO AN END.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY...GIVING CENTRAL ALABAMA A TOTAL RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. DUE
TO THE LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...SOME RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY LAST THROUGH MONDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA
BY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
EXIST...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
MAKE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS ARE IN PLACE AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
75/LINHARES
-----
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
522 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR .
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM GATHERING STRENGTH AND HEADING IN OUR
DIRECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION
TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE LEVELS OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REALLY SHOULD NOT DRAMATICALLY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO
UNFOLD IS FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF STORMS SWEEPING EASTWARD
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND CLEARING OUT OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HAVING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
SQUALL LINE WILL PRESENT A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK...AS WELL
AS A RISK FOR HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BRING LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TO AREAS WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME OF THE POTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT COMPLETELY EXIT
AREAS OF FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 8 OR 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA TONIGHT.
---
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