Birmingham NWS in their AFD tonight says upper level dynamics, low level jet, and surface instability will only have a small window of opportunity to line up. Here is an excerpt:
STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT QUITE LINING UP IN THE RIGHT PLACE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL TIME FRAME WHERE IT CAN INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT QUADRANT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE JET WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST DEPLETING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THUS BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVE TO THE EAST. ALSO...HOW FAST CAN THESE LOW CLOUDS FIZZLE IN THE MORNING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLE. TIME FRAME RIGHT NOW THAT WE ARE LOOKING IS 10 AM THROUGH 6 PM.
My main reason to doubt the severe threat for North Alabama remains the lack of instability and daytime heating at the surface. Further south instability values may be higher but shear may not be as prevalent.
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