Mike Wilhelm's Alabama Weather Blog

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Bamawx.com

This is the time of the year model madness really gets into full gear. Nearly every day extreme weather predictions are predicted by the long range models. James Spann refers to model predictions over seven days out as "voodoland". I love that term. Almost always the models change from one run to the next that far out and specific forecasts over seven days in advance are very unreliable. Notice that I said "specific" forecasts. The GFS does give us some good clues and trends to look for in the long range. Consistency between model runs increases confidence too.

Wednesday November 7
So, what are we looking at now. The coldest air of the season will arrive this time next week over the Midwest extending down towards the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures in North Alabama very well might dip below the freezing point for the first time this season.

Saturday/Sunday November 10 and 11
On Saturday Nov 10 and Sunday the 11th the GFS has been advertising a big trough and storm system rolling through North Alabama. The latest output today seems to back off a bit and shows a band of lighter precipitation moving through here on the 11th. We need rain but I plan on taking the boys to the Alabama v MSU game in Starkville. Maybe rain would be appropriate if I get the chance to meet up with some weather nerds. It's just too early to say. I will keep an eye on it.

Wednesday November 14
Wow! Look at November 14. Strong storms are still showing up on the GFS in advance of a deep low pressure system. A heavy snow event is even shown for western Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Pure voodoo, I know. The GFS has been showing this on a few runs now. Needless to say I have serious doubts about the heavy snow in the South. I do expect there will be something really interesting going on approximately two weeks from today. There will be plenty of time to watch this situation. November 15th has been a bad day for weather many times during the last 18 years, especially on November 15, 1989 in Huntsville. I have mentioned some about that here before.

Stay tuned!