Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KHUN 311112
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST WED JAN 31 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE DISCUSSION THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH TOOK CONSIDERABLE TIME TO FORMULATE.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION THE LAST TWO RUNS. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO PLACE OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND WILL BE OVERRUN LATER THIS EVENING BY A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR. SUCH A QUICK OVERRUNNING OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...FROM 9 OR 10 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HUNTSVILLE AREA AFTER 3 AM....WITH A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK. FOR NORTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS MOSTLY SNOW... WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH THE SNOW IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA AROUND 6 AM. LIGHTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CULLMAN COUNTY...AND
UP TO 1/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. NORTH AND EAST OF HUNTSVILLE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL RAIN OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY NOONTIME.
WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER HAS INCREASED... CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES...TIMING...AND AMOUNTS
REMAINS LOW. AS WITH MOST WINTER SYSTEMS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.
A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE GFS MODEL FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
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409 AM CST WED JAN 31 2007
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVENING...AND INITIALLY WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. SNOWFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARMING ALOFT MAY CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA...PERHAPS PRODUCING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE...THEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A FAVORITE LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATION...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE FOR THE LATEST ON THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
Moisture to the North, Moisture to the South - Skies have been mostly sunny, although a nice field of cumulus clouds has developed over the northwestern quarter of the state, in the vicinity of a slug o...
7 hours ago
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