As mentioned here several days ago, Alabama will likely experience a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. All of the parameters seem to be lining up: the position of the low, vertical wind shear, directional wind shear, and a strong jet to provide lifting all seem to be lining up. Even the timing of the storm appears to be bad for Alabama (the worst is expected from the late morning hours through the afternoon). The only factor that seems a bit uncertain is the degree of low level moisture present. Dew points are expected to rise rapidly prior to frontal passage, but whether they recover in time to phase up with the other parameters is still an open question.
The SPC believes that it will be a bad day. They already included the whole state of Alabama in a slight to moderate risk in their "Day Two" outlook issued earlier today. All of the state south of I-20 is in the moderate risk area. It will be interesting to see what changes are made to the outlook when we get up in the morning. A PDS tornado watch has already been issued in parts of Louisiana and Arkansas this evening. Stay tuned and be alert.
Cliff Mass Weather Blog
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