Mike Wilhelm's Alabama Weather Blog

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Bamawx.com

I have been busy and the weather has been quiet the last few days so I haven't posted. This morning at 10:43 a.m. Autumn officially begins. For a really good explanation of the science behind the change in seasons, see Tim Coleman's post at Alabamawx.com. Also interesting is this movie of satellite images taken over a year.

Eyes are now on the tropics again as Kyle is gearing up to threaten the eastern seaboard.

NASA image. See below for link.

Fellow bloggers with some interesting updates from Ike country:

Michael Detwiler of Tennessee shows the before and after pics from Crystal Beach, TX here.

Dewdrop from South Georgia shared this article from KHOU about survivor stories.

Storm Chasing Mikey of Virginia shared an article about how some of those missing may have been swept out to sea.

Jeff Masters of Weather Underground shared this link to high resolution images of Ike from NASA.

Greg Nordstom posted his thoughts on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Also, remember to scroll down and read his captivating Ike chase story. Last, but not least!

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An interesting paper was published by Dr. John Christy of UAH titled, "Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth". He shows data that indicates that the global temperature has not risen since 1998 and that by extension the atmosphere has not been affected by CO2 forcing. This is a fascinating paper to read, though I must admit that a lot of it goes right over my head.

I think there are two ways to look at his findings. One is that this is evidence that the Earth's temperature is not related significantly to human production of CO2. The other thought is that it seems to show that the idea of anthropogenic global warming is not a matter settled by science.

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Readers of this blog know that I am not convinced that there is such a thing as anthropogenic global warming.

If I had to make a call, I would say that it is not occurring and that environmental extremists have co-opted science and the media.

To be fair, though, there are reputable scientists who are much smarter than I who believe in it. One of those is Huntsville, Alabama WHNT 19 meteorologist Dan Satterfield.

He was kind enough to send me the following links with some good information to consider, regardless of your position on this issue. I respect Dan and really thank him for taking the time to share this information.

Links:

Climate FAQ

Global Warming FAQ

Climate scepticism

Read one of the most captivating hurricane chase accounts you'll ever see here.

This is by Greg Nordstrom of the Long Distance Chase Team from Mississippi State University.

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Check out this view of Ike taken by the crew of the International Space Station 220 miles above Earth's surface.

I need to add that I found this through a comment on my friend Dewdrop's excellent weather blog.

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A few of the lowest temperatures in alabama included:

55 Meridianville

56 Hamilton

57 Muscle Shoals

58 Crossville, Vinemont

59 Decatur, Pinson, Centreville, Ashland, Cottondale

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I have recorded low temperatures below 60 degrees this year at least once during every month except August. We are not warming in our part of the globe.

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I have been away from the computer most of the weekend so there is some catching up to do. We will be talking about Ike for a long time. Some estimates are that he has caused $22 billion dollars in damage.

Of greatest concern is the fact that two people have died and many other are missing on the Bolivar Peninsula, just east of Galveston. I took the boys to Galveston in June of 2007. and we drove down the peninsula on our way to the ferry ride to Galveston Island. It was sad imagining what those places and those people were experiencing.

About 500 people refused to leave the once beautiful peninsula, which was home to 3800 residents. Just before the storm's greatest fury arrived, the Coast Guard rescued 93 people. Now many of those who refused to leave are missing and feared to be dead.

There was at least one miraculous story of survival mentioned in the New York Times:

"One middle-aged man was washed from his home on Crystal Beach all the way to the mainland, where he was spotted by National Guard troops in a helicopter and picked up. That’s the only miracle we’ve had so far,” said the Chambers County sheriff, Joe LaRive. “When the water picked up his house, he floated out a window and hung onto a piece of wood all night long, and he saw fish and alligators and fire ants.” The man was treated and released from a nearby hospital, Sheriff LaRive said."

Storm chaser Michael Haynes took some amazing pictures as Ike approached Galveston on Friday.

Check out this video of the storm surge flooding from a Coast Guard flyover.




My son Joe took this picture as we drove toward the ferry on the Bolivar Peninsula last year.


More to come later...

We are on our way to Tuscaloosa for the Alabama Crimson Tide game. I may not get the chance to post anything more about Ike for awhile.

Alabamawx.com is the best place to go for updates.

Highest official reported wind gust so far: 96 mph at Houston Hobby Airport

Possibly 2-4 million people without power. Full restoration may take weeks.

Tall buildings in downtown Houston damages by hurricane force winds.

Brennan's restaurant in Houston destroyed by fire.

Severe flooding in Galveston area.

Landfall officially occurred at 2:10 a.m. according to the NHC. The center of the eye at landfall was between Point Bolivar and the eastern tip of Galveston Island where the free ferry is located.

7:58


7:30


7:02


6:30


5:29


5:29

\
5:01


4:29

2:09

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON...

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE
MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

1:03


1:26

One million people now without power.

Transformers blowing up across Houston.

Wind gusts in the 70's and 80's are now common.

Center of the eye is 12 nautical miles from shore at 1:31.

12:30

The eye is moving ashore.

12:16 (red dot is between the Bolivar Peninsula and the east end of Galveston Island. This is where the ferry runs.


This is a picture I took last year when we rode that ferry. This is looking toward Galveston from Port Bolivar.

On the Bolivar Peninsula there are some houses along the beach and on the other side of the road are some oil rigs, cattle farms, and a lighthouse.

11:20 p.m.



The center of Ike at 11:20 was 37 nautical miles southeast of Galveston Island. I placed a red marker on the coast at the site of the historic Hotel Galvez.

Numerous areas have received wind gusts in the 60's. The highest gust I have heard reported so far was 68 at the galveston Pleasure Pier.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 28.6N  94.4W    95 KT
12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.4W    70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.3W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     14/1200Z 36.6N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  86.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG

At 9:20 KHOU is showing someone taking still pictures on the beach.

The Coast Guard has been rescuing people at Point Bolivar.

As of 8 p.m. power is out over the entirety of Galveston Island.

At 8:30 KHOU reported that a 10 year old boy died when a tree that his dad cut down fell on him.

80 mph gust reported at Baytown by KHOU.
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This video is from Baldwin County ABC 33/40 Skywatcher wlpowell63.

Thanks to him for allowing me to share it here.

I am sad tonight. The AP reports that 11,000 Galvestonians refused to evacuate.

Many of those people will not make it.

All we can do now is pray for them.

They were warned. Please, no one blame the NWS or the government. It was their unfortunate choice.

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Houston TV

Severe Studios

DirecTV Channel 361 is broadcasting Houston Channel 11.

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HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Keep an eye on this blog from the Long Distance Chase Team. They are staying in Galveston as they have found what they consider to be a safe four story parking deck near the hospital.

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Winds gusted to tropical storm force yesterday along the Alabama Gulf Coast. The huge size of Ike and the associated storm surge is evident 200 miles from his center. Blog reader Alisa sent these pictures my way this morning. She did not know who to credit but I am posting these to show the magnitude of this storm.

These were taken yesterday in Gulf Shores, Alabama.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...MASSIVE STORM TIDES EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF LANDFALL...

.AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.  HOWEVER BECAUSE IKE IS A
VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG
THE COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
265 MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA
HAS RISEN TO 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL AND AM STRESSING THAT THE SURGE WILL EXTENDING A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD
OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LARGE
BATTERING WAVES WILL WORSEN THE IMPACTS OF THE SURGE.

As of 09/11/2008 11:00 CDT, water levels are elevated along the Gulf coast from southern Florida to eastern Louisiana. Water levels from the Florida Panhandle westward to Louisiana are rising and mostly range from 1.5 to 4.2 feet above predictions. Water level at Shell Beach, LA is currently 4.2 above predicted. Barometric pressure and winds along the Gulf coast are now showing the influence from Hurricane Ike. Barometric pressure started to fall, winds are getting stronger with gusts up to 36 knots currently registered at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE
ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

1000 AM CDT:
POSITION...25.5 N...88.4 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL
RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE
SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT
IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

God bless America.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
400 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
 ...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI
-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.


THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N...87.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY 
CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.  HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE
WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THERE HAS BEEN A
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS

DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS
WOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON
AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR
MOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF RUN...WHICH
IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE LATEST GFDL
RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT. SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS
BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.

---

James Spann has been saying this and I agree…. It is unusual that a trough will not pull a tropical system northward this late in the season.

Average error by the NHC is 200 miles. Galveston to NOLA should not let their guard down yet.

Latest track from the NHC and models pull Ike more to the north. Scary.

Sustained winds now 100 mph.

...

Mississippi State University Meteorology instructor Justyn Jackson notes that Ike's "pressure is now down to 940.5 mb -- that's a drop of 6 mb in the last few hours. Typically, there is about a 6-12 hour lag in the pressure drop and the wind speed increase. With that said, expect Ike to be a major hurricane later tonight and possibly near Category 4 intensity tomorrow morning."

He goes on to mention the possibility that Ike could actually reach Cat 5 status within the next 48 hours.

My untrained mind thinks he is right on.

Excerpts from the 11 a.m. ET NHC advisory and discussion:

BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME WARM GULF EDDIES.

I believe that Jason Simpson came up with this tremendous idea.

The past few days weather folks have been obsessing over the action in the tropics. That is understandable but weather is still occurring here at home.

This morning was foggy and the temperature was a comfortable 70 degrees.

I made this video just before 7 a.m. and it was foggier before I made it.

Excerpts from the NHC 5 a.m. ET Advisory and discussion:

MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…963 MB.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE

I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Model output

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.

Radar

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Ike's Cuban Landfall

Hurricane Ike has been wreaking havoc in the Caribbean and is currently battering Cuba. At least 58 people have died in Haiti due to flooding resulting from Ike. According to the AP, over 319 Haitians have perished due to four separate tropical systems this season. Prior to striking Haiti, Ike slammed the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category Four hurricane.

Ike made landfall on Cuba as A Category Three hurricane with 120 mile per hour winds last night but has since been downgraded to Category Two. Over 900,000 Cubans have evacuated to higher ground which will undoubtedly save countless lives.

Ike threatens to make a direct hit on Havana Cuba Tuesday morning. After crossing Cuba, Ike will head into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the US coast.